Cloud of uncertainty marks start of US harvest

The appetite for fresh asparagus in the United States remains strong, attracting annual retail sales worth nearly US $893 million. But its asparagus production was already declining – due to factors including the higher cost and shortage of labour – before this year brought the added challenges of an immigration crackdown and tariff threats. With asparagus from Minnesota expected to hit stores nationwide around May 8-10 at time of writing, it remains to be seen what the trade fallout might bring this season for what has become a popular vegetable in this major market.

Sales of organic asparagus 
on the rise

Circana* retail scan data for the 12 months ending February 23 this year showed total fresh asparagus sales in the US were worth $892.6 million, down 1.9% compared with the previous year. However, organic asparagus sales for the 12 months totaled $97.3 million, up 7.4%, while conventional sales were worth $795.3 million, down 2.9%. Conventional asparagus sales accounted for 89% of total sales, with organic sales contributing 11%. Circana data also shows that the volume of asparagus sold across all retail outlets for the 12 months was down 2%, with organic up 4.3% and conventional down 2.6%. Green accounted for nearly 99% of America’s total spend at retail on fresh asparagus, with tips the next biggest subcategory with a 0.7% share, 0.17% for white, 0.04% for purple, and 0.16% for all others. The average unit price for all asparagus was $3.31, up 0.1% YoY. Circana data indicates average conventional unit pricing was down 0.3% to $3.29 while that for organic was up 3% to $3.53. Similarly, USDA data for the Easter period – during which asparagus is a traditional favourite among vegetables – shows the average advertised price for fresh green asparagus in major retail outlets, ($2.65/lb) was down 13% compared to the same week last year, while that for organic was up 3.2% (to $4.51/lb).

Domestic production decreasing every year

In Michigan, the nation’s largest producer of asparagus, the 2024 crop value of $24.5 million was down 18.5% – or $5.57 million – on that of 2022, while the harvested area had shrunk by 24% to 7,500 acres (3,035 ha), USDA data shows. According to Michigan State University, the industry is facing difficulties: “As is the case with many commodities, rising labor costs is pressuring the profitability of the asparagus industry.” In its March, 2025, report “The Outlook for Michigan Agriculture 2025”, the university noted great uncertainty surrounding this year’s farm forecast, with “tariffs and other trade issues” increasing the level of risk, “increasing concern about a possible recession”, labor prices expected to rise, and ongoing labor shortages.

Tariffs cast shadow over trade outlook

Imports supply up to 90% of America’s fresh asparagus supply and its first and third biggest sources – Mexico and Canada – happen to also be among the countries, along with China, under threat by the Trump administration of high tariffs on their exports. USDA data shows that in 2024, Mexico held a 65.6% share of US fresh asparagus imports by volume, followed by Peru with 33% and Canada with a distant 0.9%. In a market update in March, US foodservice supplier Markon Cooperative said: “Should tariffs add cost to Mexican supplies, Peru may act as a small relief valve, but it will not be able to support all national demand.” In March, Giancarlo Riva from Ernst & Young Peru said increased tariffs on Mexico could create opportunities in the US market for Peruvian exports, such as might be the case with avocado, but noted some analysts warn protectionist measures could lead to more expensive supply chains, disrupt consumer expectations and habits, and potentially trigger inflation in the US economy, while overarching uncertainty typically paralyses or slows investment. As for ramifications for US growers, while import tariffs might make local products more price competitive, retaliatory tariffs could drive up farm costs, such as for fertiliser, and adversely affect consumer habits if the current year-round supply is disrupted and/or retail prices rise.

* Circana OmniMarket™ Integrated Fresh

Sources include:
https://msu-prod.dotcmscloud.com/resources/
the-outlook-for-michigan-agriculture-2025
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/fvwretail.pdf
https://www.markon.com/update-asparagus-51